Neuberg
I've been thinking about Neuberg (as one does).
It is clear that an obviously fair solution for the situation (boards played a different number of times) does not exist, but we must use something.
In the literature, there is an assumption that "all boards should count equally". This sounds a good principle, but the actual effect is highly dependent on how you do the counting and what equally means. Leaving that aside, I looked at why we use Neuberg.
The Neuberg paper by Max Bavin (https://www.ebu.co.uk/documents/laws-and-ethics/articles/neuberg-formula.pdf) takes as read that a top on a board with 11 results is better than a 65% result on a board with 101 results.
That is not at all self-evident to me.
What I am interested in is doing a simulation to establish how likely each case is. To do that I would need historical information as to how likely a given pair is to beat another given pair on any particular board.
Does anyone know if such a dataset exists? (clearly it will exist in the various P2P uploads to the EBU, but whether it is available and extractable is a different proposition).
Or maybe someone has already done such a simulation?