When I can't poll
The bidding goes:
w e
1NT 2D (transfer to hearts guaranteeing 5 hearts - not a misbid, intended)
2H 2NT
3H P
1NT Announced by East as 15-17. West pipes up "Oh no it isn't". Fair enough, director called, and East advised of his responsibilities.
I'm not happy with the E's pass, and am minded to make them bid 4H (with 10 HCP opposite a 15-17 NT, if you're prepared to play in 3H then 4H is a clearly logical alternative choice).
But because of the ludicrous transfer bid, I can't poll on East's hand.
Do I have any alternative to making a judgement decision (in consultation with others)?
Comments
Well, you can still poll along the lines of "assuming you transfer to look for a fit, what do you bid on this auction?" The results won't be as useful but here the general question is "opposite a 15-17 NT, what sequences are you considering?" You might poll the hand after 1NT, since 3NT direct seems the single obvious bid there and, indeed, on the second round.
3NT might play surprisingly well though with all those intermediates. Was 3H actually a good score? It is also an option to retain the score for 3H and fine E for use of UI.
The diagram in the original post is making this needlessly confusing by putting East at the left-hand side of the diagram and West at the right-hand side, the opposite of the usual convention; this might easily cause people to misread it. (What's EW's actual 1NT range, which could be used to confirm which way round the diagram goes?: 12-14 like West's hand, or 10-12 like East's?)
Assuming that the compass points in the diagram and description match, I don't think it's possible for this auction to end up anywhere other than hearts (except possibly at the slam level) – with East having shown 5 hearts and West having 4, West won't allow the auction to stop in any suit other than hearts.
It is weird that East here hasn't bid game opposite an apparent 15-17 NT. I would normally reason that East's hand is more suited to an NT game than a suit game, and given the point count, East would likely bid 3NT (which would of course be pulled to 4H by West). But as you say, polling is difficult because a player who evaluated their hand as better for NT than suit contracts probably wouldn't have transferred into a 3-card suit.
Aren't we worried that East deliberately misbid 2D when in possession of UI?
To what end?