Slam Statistics
I'm interested to know how many potential (i.e. double dummy) slams are actually bid by players. I expect it will be higher for better players, but how much higher?
Can anyone point me towards any useful statistics? (Google has failed me on this occasion.)
Thanks
Jeremy
Comments
This is what Google offered me:
https://www.lajollabridge.com/Articles/SlamStatistics.htm#:~:text=Double dummy, an amazing 13.6,0.01% of the time).
I'd seen those.
There's a lot about how often slams are makeable, but not about how often they are actually bid.
You can make some estimates from the "Slams per session bid and made" section, but that's comparing actual made with theoretical makeable, not actual made with theoretical makeable.
?
Although I unfortunately don't have statistics, it seems to be fairly common in practice for slam to be makeable double-dummy on the layout at the table, but worse than 50% single-dummy looking at only the hands of the partnership who would declare it. Good players generally try to avoid bidding that sort of slam, even though a double-dummy analyser will tell you that it's available.
I'm curious as to whether that sort of slam is more or less common than the sort of slam that good players would want to bid. I think they might actually be more common, although I'm not sure.
The easiest way to work out the answer to your original question would probably be to get a large number of session results files, count the number of slams bid-and-made in them, and compare to the known percentage probability that slam is makeable double-dummy on a random deal – the luck should average out if you have enough data.
There must be enormous numbers of hands which would lend themselves to analysis. Does anyone have a way of getting at them with a good analysing tool?
Duh!
Should have been actual made with estimated makeable, not actual made with actual makeable.
This analysis on the same site is closer to the original request:
https://www.lajollabridge.com/Articles/PartialGameSlamGrand.htm